The growth in smartphone adoption is well documented, but the figures behind the growth are even more astounding. At the end of 2010 there were approximately 19.67 million smartphones in the UK and 61.36 million featurephones or other devices. Every year, approximately 30 million handsets are sold in the UK, with approximately 80% of all contract users now taking a smartphone. Similarly, approximately 55% of all pay as you go users also take a smartphone.
Based on these current trends alone, mobileSQUARED forecasts smartphones will number 32.44 million by the end of this year – over 50% penetration of the entire population. Moreover, by 2015, smartphones will number 63.83 million – approximately 100% population penetration.
The increasing penetration of smartphones will have a massive impact on how we all consume and interact with media. Mobile marketing can only currently reach 100% of users via text-based campaigns. By2015, however, similar reach could be reached via in-app notifications, mobile social media or mobile optimised email.
mobileSQUARED forecasts Android devices will have 59.4% device penetration by 2015, followed by the iPhone with 18.1% and BlackBerry on 12.95%. There will still be around 22.1 million featurephones and other devices in circulation – representing about 25.7% of total devices.
By 2016, smartphone numbers are forecast to have risen to 68.6 million, almost 80% of total devices. mobileSQUARED expects Symbian to all but disappear by 4Q15, with Windows ramping up over the period. We also expect BlackBerry numbers to keep rising until 4Q12, before following the downward trend witnessed in north America.
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